journal papers

  • [0] Inflation targeting, credit flows, and financial stability in a regime change model. Forthcoming in Macroeconomic Dynamics, Paper
  • [1] Destabilizing effects of bank overleveraging on real activity - An analysis based on a threshold MCS-GVAR. July 2017. Macroeconomic Dynamics, Paper
  • [2] Implications of model uncertainty for bank stress testing. April 2017. Journal of Financial Services Research, Paper
  • [3] Assessing the efficacy of borrower-based macroprudential policy using an integrated micro-macro model for European households. Feb 2017. Economic Modelling, Vol. 61, pp.510-528, Paper
  • [4] STAMP€: Stress-test analytics for macroprudential purposes in the euro area. Feb 2017. ECB eBook (ed. by Dees et al.), Paper

working papers

  • [5] Spillovers in space and time: where spatial econometrics and Global VAR models meet. Feb 2018. ECB Working Paper No. 2134, Paper
  • [6] On secular stagnation and low interest rates: demography matters. July 2017. ECB Working Paper No. 2088, Paper
  • [7] Do stress tests matter? Evidence from the 2014 and 2016 stress tests. May 2017. ECB Working Paper No. 2054, Paper
  • [8] Mind the output gap: The disconnect of growth and inflation during recessions and convex Phillips curves in the euro area. Jan 2017. ECB Working Paper No. 2004, Paper
  • [9] Assessing the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy. July 2016. ECB Working Paper No. 1935, Paper
  • [10] The impact of bank capital on economic activity - Evidence from a Mixed-Cross-Section GVAR model. Mar 2016. ECB Working Paper No. 1888, Paper
  • [11] Assessing the efficacy of borrower-based macroprudential policy using an integrated micro-macro model for European households. Feb 2016. ECB Working Paper No. 1881, Paper
  • [12] A false sense of security in applying handpicked equations for stress test purposes. Sep 2015. ECB Working Paper No. 1845, Paper
  • [13] Modeling banking, sovereign, and macro risk in a CCA global VAR. Oct 2013. IMF Working Paper No. 13/218, Paper
  • [14] Measuring contagion potential among sovereigns and banks using a mixed-cross-section GVAR. Aug 2013. ECB Working Paper No. 1570, Paper
  • [15] Regime-switching global vector autoregressive models. Aug 2013. ECB Working Paper No. 1569, Paper
  • [16] Estimating GVAR weight matrices. Mar 2013. ECB Working Paper No. 1523, Paper
  • [17] Information flows and disagreement. Sep 2012. ECB Working Paper No. 1475, Paper
  • [18] Macroeconomic vulnerability and disagreement in expectations. Dec 2011. ECB Working Paper No. 1407, Paper
  • [19] Corporate bond spreads and real activity in the euro area - Least angle regression forecasting and the probability of the recession. Jan 2011. ECB Working Paper No. 1286, Paper
  • [20] Nonparametric hybrid Phillips curves based on subjective expectations: Estimates for the euro area. Dec 2009. ECB Working Paper No. 1119, Paper
  • [21] Inflation perceptions and expectations in the euro area: The role of news. Sep 2009. ECB Working Paper No. 1088, Paper